Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026: Negotiations without a durable outcome

Pressure toward ending the war is building on both sides, albeit for different reasons. Russia faces mounting economic strain and elite fatigue, while Ukraine is constrained by capacity limits and growing exhaustion. These dynamics increase the likelihood of negotiations – but not of a durable settlement.

Europe at a strategic crossroads

Europe is approaching a strategic inflection point. It will need to decide whether to move toward direct involvement in Ukraine through security guarantees, or to remain on the sidelines. This choice will have long-term implications for the future European security architecture.

A fragile pause, persistent risks

Any negotiated outcome is likely to be inherently fragile. Both sides would need to accept substantial compromises, making a cease-fire more a pause than an end to the conflict.

Such an arrangement would leave a latent conflict along Europe’s eastern flank: Ukraine would retain incentives to recover lost territory, Russia would continue efforts to destabilise the Ukrainian state, and Europe could be drawn in depending on the scope of post-war security guarantees.

Rather than resolving Europe’s security challenge, a cease-fire would therefore introduce new and potentially more complex risks to regional stability.

Signposts to watch

1. U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine and/or a stronger role in mediating peace negotiations

   • Impact: Increased pressure on Ukraine to accept a compromise settlement and incentives for Russia to sustain aggressive behaviour

2. Political instability in Ukraine linked to elections and/or new corruption scandals

   • Impact: Expanded opportunities for Russian interference aimed at fuelling internal conflict and long-term destabilisation

3. MAGA-inspired parties victory in National European elections and national decisions (not) to send troops to Ukraine post-ceasefire.

   • Impact: Fragmentation of European support and increased pressure on Kyiv to compromise.

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