Poland 2026 Outlook: Economic momentum, political constraint

Poland will enter 2026 with strong economic momentum and an increasingly complex political environment. While growth dynamics remain favourable compared to the rest of Central and Eastern Europe, domestic institutional friction and early pre-election positioning ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections will shape policy choices. Poland’s expanding regional and transatlantic role will further amplify the interaction between domestic politics and foreign policy.

Growth momentum and inflation risks

Economic growth in Poland is set to remain robust in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand and higher EU-funded investment. Poland is likely to remain the fastest-growing major economy in CEE, but this momentum will also generate renewed inflationary pressures. As a result, economic performance will function both as a political asset for the governing coalition and a growing macroeconomic constraint.

Complicated cohabitation continues

Since the 2025 presidential election, Poland’s political landscape has been shaped by a difficult cohabitation between Prime Minister Donald Tusk of the Civic Coalition and President Karol Nawrocki, aligned with the conservative camp linked to Law and Justice. Nawrocki is likely to use 2026 to consolidate his profile as a future leader of the Polish right.

This institutional friction is expected to persist and intensify as the 2027 parliamentary elections approach. Relations between the prime minister and the president are unlikely to improve, sustaining tensions that may complicate policymaking and slow legislative processes. The president has already demonstrated a willingness to use veto powers frequently, reinforcing institutional gridlock in selected policy areas.

Pre-election positioning

Polling favours Tusk’s Civic Coalition over PiS, but the balance remains volatile and subject to change. With parliamentary elections approaching, the government is expected to prioritise electoral positioning over fiscal consolidation. Generous social policies and continued emphasis on public investment are likely, even at the cost of rising public debt relative to GDP. Fiscal discipline will take a back seat to maintaining voter support and economic momentum.

This domestic strategy intersects with Poland’s growing international profile. Warsaw is expected to further strengthen its role as a key interlocutor in EU–US relations, particularly on security, defence, and Eastern policy. In parallel, the conservative camp will use 2026 to regroup and prepare for a potential return to power, sharpening political polarisation.

Security and foreign policy

Poland will continue to face sustained pressure along its eastern border, including episodic challenges to sovereignty linked to Belarus and Russia. These dynamics will reinforce Poland’s hard-security posture and its prominence within NATO and the EU, although institutional tension between the prime minister and the president may complicate strategic coordination.

At the EU level, Poland is set to play a leading role among CEE states in negotiations over the next EU budget. Warsaw’s positioning will have spillover effects across the region, shaping funding priorities and bargaining strategies for other CEE countries.

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